9 yr
brand new10 yr20 yr
get-ready zone
Breakdown odds are climbing. Get your ducks in a row.
Roughly a 10% chance of a sudden breakdown this year. The odds keep climbing every year you wait.
Next 10 years of carbon
For a typical UK home (9,430 kWh/yr of heat).
Switch to a heat pump3.3 t
embodied (1,200 kg)operational, falls as grid cleans up
Saved by switching17.8 t
Today's gas emits 2.10 t/yr. A heat pump emits 0.44 t/yr now, falling toward 0.07 t/yr by 2035 as the grid cleans up.
My gas bills are…
Lock-in lottery if your boiler dies before you're ready
A panic-swap to gas locks in another 12+ years of fossil heat. Versus a planned heat-pump path, that costs roughly 22 extra tonnes of CO₂.
The chance of a sudden breakdown rises sharply past age 10. By 12+, every winter is a coin flip. The losing toss is a decade locked in to gas.